Apartment Supply Migrates Back to the Coasts

➤ The Signal

The apartment cycle is splitting in two. The Sun Belt markets that overbuilt through 2024 are now purging supply — Austin, Denver, and Phoenix are all cutting deliveries sharply, which sets up their rent recovery for 2027–28. Meanwhile Los Angeles, long supply-constrained, is suddenly the nation’s permitting leader.

That divergence is the underwriting story. A pro forma that treats “multifamily supply” as a single national variable will misprice both ends.

➤ Implications

Buy the Sun Belt into weakness for the delivery air-pocket ahead; underwrite coastal deals against a heavier near-term supply load than the last five years implied.