CoStar raised its national office net absorption forecast to about 20 million square feet for 2026 and 9 million for 2027, compared with August projections of 13 million and 5 million. Year-end 2026 vacancy is forecast near 13.6%. These are forecasts, not space already absorbed.
CRE Daily reports CoStar expects near-term asking-rent growth of about 2.5% year over year, approaching 3% annually later. The percentage is not quarterly growth. CoStar also changed its inventory accounting to remove non-competitive space; the effect on individual indicators is not quantified in the reporting.
CBRE’s Q3 report records 63.8 million square feet of leasing, up 4% year over year. Construction completions totaled 1.5 million square feet, down 76% from a year earlier. That figure describes deliveries during the quarter. The under-construction pipeline was 20.1 million square feet, slightly higher during Q3 but 84% below its Q2 2020 peak.
Implications: A smaller construction flow can support leasing conditions, but national forecasts do not establish a specific building’s outlook. Separate delivered supply from the remaining pipeline, and evaluate lease demand, competing space and tenant quality at the submarket level.
CRE Daily reports CoStar expects near-term asking-rent growth of about 2.5% year over year, approaching 3% annually later. The percentage is not quarterly growth. CoStar also changed its inventory accounting to remove non-competitive space; the effect on individual indicators is not quantified in the reporting.
CBRE’s Q3 report records 63.8 million square feet of leasing, up 4% year over year. Construction completions totaled 1.5 million square feet, down 76% from a year earlier. That figure describes deliveries during the quarter. The under-construction pipeline was 20.1 million square feet, slightly higher during Q3 but 84% below its Q2 2020 peak.
Implications: A smaller construction flow can support leasing conditions, but national forecasts do not establish a specific building’s outlook. Separate delivered supply from the remaining pipeline, and evaluate lease demand, competing space and tenant quality at the submarket level.
Key Takeaways
- Keep forecasts, completed leasing and construction deliveries separate. CBRE’s 76% decline applies to Q3 completions, not the 20.1M SF under-construction pipeline.
CBRE — Q3 2026 U.S. Office Market Report: https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/q3-2026-us-office-market-report · CRE Daily — CoStar Lifts Office Outlook as Rents Seen Topping 3%, October 29, 2026: https://www.credaily.com/briefs/costar-lifts-office-outlook-as-rents-seen-topping-3/
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