đź“ťCRE360 Take:
Cushman & Wakefield’s midyear outlook notes tariff headwinds and policy uncertainty are slowing growth, but avoids calling a recession. Prospective Fed cuts and easing trade tensions could support a stronger 2026. Capital markets show tentative improvement, with transactions inching higher as rates stabilize. Industrial is subdued short term but backed by e-commerce and reshoring. Multifamily remains resilient, while office lags with elevated vacancies. Retail faces tariff drag, but construction is limited. Alternatives like data centers and senior housing gain favor.
CRE360 sees useful breadth but highlights blind spots. Office optimism looks premature given lease rollovers in 2025–26. The “improved investor confidence” narrative feels rosier than volumes suggest. Debt market strain, especially at regional banks, is underplayed. The outlook leans heavily on policy relief that may not arrive as projected.
Signal: hold/watch with pivots. Stay defensive in 2025, rebalance into sectors with durable drivers like industrial and alternatives. Hold core multifamily, avoid speculative office and discretionary retail. Position now for a stronger 2026, but maintain contingency if macro relief lags.
Publisher Credit:
Full report: Cushman & Wakefield — Midpoint 2025 U.S. Economic & CRE Outlook
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