Land, capital and GPUs are no longer the binding constraints; synchronization is. A site can be built before it can be powered.
Transformer lead time is up to about 2.7 times the build period (derived). Last week's Census data put data center construction at an $85B annual pace; the schedule risk sits behind that spending.
The author argues the advantage is shifting to developers who can coordinate utilities, equipment makers and contractors. That is an argued view, not a measured result.
Implications
Underwrite power delivery date, not building completion date. Lenders should tie draws and lease commencement to equipment delivery and interconnection milestones. Developers should treat long-lead electrical equipment as a procurement-first item.
Flags: This is commentary by an academic, not a data release. Lead times and PJM figures are the author's and were not independently verified. Multiplier is a CRE360 derivation.
Related coverage
Key Takeaways
- A data center is only as fast as its slowest transformer
- Underwrite power delivery date and not building completion date
- Tie draws and lease commencement to equipment and interconnection milestones
Commercial Observer, The AI Infrastructure Industry Has Entered Its Coordination Crisis (Suhail Tayyeb, NYU Schack Institute), Oct. 5, 2026
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