Events Are Carrying Hotels — Forecasters Just Raised 2026 to +2.8%

The Signal:

• The 2026 upgrade is event-driven, not structural.
• Constrained supply magnifies each event's impact.
• The national average hides enormous market-by-market dispersion.

The upgraded forecast is real money, but read the mechanism before you underwrite it. CoStar and Tourism Economics raised the 2026 U.S. RevPAR growth forecast to +2.8%, on a supply base growing just 0.4%.

Hotels are getting the boost from a specific, dated calendar. In the week ending July 11, Miami RevPAR jumped 38.0% on a World Cup quarterfinal, Las Vegas rose 23.9%, and Boston ADR climbed 21.8%. The prior week, Washington, D.C. RevPAR surged 57.3% on America 250 celebrations, with 21 of the top 25 markets posting gains.

That is the caution embedded in the good news. The demand is borrowed from a calendar, not built into the base. When new rooms grow just 0.4% and a mega-event arrives, the RevPAR spike is violent — but once the events pass, the tailwind leaves with them.

The structural read connects to the sector's dispersion story: the national number is nearly meaningless because performance is concentrated in whichever metros are hosting.

Implications: Owners of event-exposed assets should harvest the spike — push rate hard during the window — but not capitalize it as recurring. Buyers should discount event-inflated trailing numbers back to a normalized base before pricing. For operators, 2026 is a year to maximize event weeks operationally while recognizing the baseline hasn't materially changed.