Hotels Keep Grinding Higher — Right As the Forecast Gets Cut

➤ The Signal

Hotels are posting a genuine growth streak — four-plus percent RevPAR gains and broad top-market participation. After a flat-to-negative 2025, that reversal is real and mostly driven by a heavy events calendar pulling demand into specific cities.

Las Vegas is the tell: a 17.9% RevPAR jump on concerts, conventions, and sports is not a base-demand story — it’s a schedule. Markets with the calendar are outrunning those without it, which makes the strength real but uneven.

That is why the forecast cut matters. Analysts trimming the full year toward 3% even while prints run near 5% are signaling that the back half leans on assumptions — softer consumer travel, tougher comps — that the strong spring doesn’t guarantee.

➤ Implications

Owners weighing hold-versus-sell are pricing a market where trailing performance and forward guidance point different directions. Event-dependent markets carry calendar risk; underwriting to trailing RevPAR without discounting the forecast is where sellers get the better of buyers.