➤ Key Highlights
U.S. RevPAR rose 4.0% year-over-year in May 2026.
Trailing-28-day RevPAR was up 4.9% through June 13.
20 of the top-25 markets posted RevPAR gains.
Las Vegas led on events — RevPAR +17.9%, ADR +13.5% to $238.40.
CoStar and Tourism Economics trimmed the full-year outlook toward ~3.0% growth.
➤ The Signal
Hotels are posting a genuine growth streak — four-plus percent RevPAR gains and broad top-market participation. After a flat-to-negative 2025, that reversal is real and mostly driven by a heavy events calendar pulling demand into specific cities.
Las Vegas is the tell: a 17.9% RevPAR jump on concerts, conventions, and sports is not a base-demand story — it’s a schedule. Markets with the calendar are outrunning those without it, which makes the strength real but uneven.
That is why the forecast cut matters. Analysts trimming the full year toward 3% even while prints run near 5% are signaling that the back half leans on assumptions — softer consumer travel, tougher comps — that the strong spring doesn’t guarantee.
➤ Implications
Owners weighing hold-versus-sell are pricing a market where trailing performance and forward guidance point different directions. Event-dependent markets carry calendar risk; underwriting to trailing RevPAR without discounting the forecast is where sellers get the better of buyers.
➤ Key Takeaway
When the current number is 5% and the forecast is 3%, the trade isn’t the RevPAR — it’s which number you underwrite.
Source: CoStar / STR / Tourism Economics — May–June 2026
