đź“ťCRE360 Take:
JLL’s August 2025 industrial update portrays a sector that’s softening, yet diversifying. Demand from e-commerce has cooled, but new engines are emerging: manufacturers are projected to account for 30% of demand by 2028, driven by onshoring. Third-party logistics firms lead current leasing, providing flexibility in a choppy economy. The Southeast dominates absorption, while Phoenix manufacturing demand has grown nearly 400% since 2020. JLL suggests pent-up demand could re-enter as conditions stabilize.
CRE360 sees strength but stresses balance. Rising vacancies in older stock are glossed over, and e-commerce demand has retreated from pandemic highs. Coastal port markets face labor and cost issues absent from the analysis. The bullish tone on pent-up demand could overshoot if interest rates stay high; recent construction still risks oversupply.
Signal: watch/chase selectively. Modern logistics and manufacturing-centric parks in Sun Belt metros are strong bets. Avoid commodity warehouses in overbuilt nodes. Fundamentals remain solid long term, but overpaying now is a trap
Publisher Credit:
Full report: JLL — U.S. Industrial Market, August 2025
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