The recovery has paused, and the 10-year now sets the direction.
Green Street's index slipped 0.1% in September. Only student housing moved, down 4.7%, and at a 2.5% weight it did little to the headline.
Recovery is uneven: malls and strip retail are at or above peak, while office and apartments remain 33% and 22% below.
Yields are the pressure point. The 10-year hit 5.31% Monday and is up more than a point in 2026.
Lenders are extending rather than resolving: Fitch counts $31.6B of bridge loans bundled into CRE CLOs through August.
Green Street's own caution is that prices are likely to fall if the rise in yields sticks.
A flat model-based index against a 5%-plus 10-year means either NOI growth is offsetting rates or the valuation models have not caught up with them. Underwrite exit cap rates against today's Treasury level, not last year's, and treat bridge-loan extensions as a way to delay repricing, not avoid it.
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Key Takeaways
- Prices have stopped rising, and the 10-year now decides the next move.
- The index is built on valuation models driven by cap rates and NOI growth, not on closed trades
- Fitch: $31.6B of bridge loans went into CRE CLOs through August, more than all of 2025
CRE Daily, Green Street Index Slips 0.1% as Student Housing Falls 4.7%, Oct. 8, 2026 · CRE Daily, Bridge-to-Bridge Loans Delay CRE Reckoning as 10-Year Tops 5%, Oct. 8, 2026 (citing Fitch, MSCI) · GlobeSt, Commercial Property Prices Stall as Green Street Warns of Further Declines, Oct. 8, 2026
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