Through July 2026, U.S. retailers announced 3,255 store openings totaling roughly 63 million square feet against 3,399 closures totaling 36.9 million square feet, according to Coresight Research. Net store count: minus 144. Net space: plus 26.1 million square feet.
The average opening spans 19,350 square feet against an average closure of 10,860 — new stores are roughly 78% larger than the ones going dark. The store-count gap has narrowed sharply from a net loss of 1,778 locations over the same period in 2025.
Apparel, footwear and accessories drove 1,103 closures, 32.4% of the total. Large-format growth was led by IKEA, Publix, Bass Pro Shops, Meijer and Rural King; the year's biggest contractions came from American Signature, Walgreens and Saks Fifth Avenue.
A net loss of 144 locations reads like contraction and is reported that way. But a 63-million-square-foot opening pipeline against a 36.9-million-square-foot closing pipeline is a market absorbing space. Two retailers can produce that spread by trading a thousand 10,000-square-foot inline suites for five hundred 20,000-square-foot boxes.
That mix shift is the leasing problem, not the count. Inline suites of 8,000 to 12,000 square feet in apparel-heavy centers are what is coming back. Grocers, off-price, outdoor recreation and warehouse-club formats are what is expanding. Those tenants do not backfill each other's boxes without capital, demising work and frequently a pylon and parking-ratio conversation.
Implications. Underwrite a center by tenant category and unit size, not by occupancy percentage. A 95%-leased apparel-weighted center and a 95%-leased grocery-anchored center are not the same asset. The move from minus 1,778 stores to minus 144 in twelve months also argues the 2024–2025 rationalization wave has largely run.
Key Takeaways
- Retail isn't shrinking. It's changing shape — and the wrong-shaped suite is the vacancy nobody has priced.
- Store count is the wrong denominator for a landlord. GLA is the right one.
- The tenants closing and the tenants opening want different buildings, and the conversion isn't free.
Coresight Research — US Store Tracker Extra, July 2026 · Institutional Real Estate Inc. — U.S. retail market adds 26.1 million square feet through July · CRE Daily — Retail store closures outpace openings, bigger boxes win
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