Self-Storage Just Reset 25 Percent, and Supply Is at an 11-Year Low

The Signal:

• A 25% value reset plus an 11-year supply low is the textbook entry window.
• The big REITs are buying, but through JVs and off-market channels, not open-market bidding wars.
• Occupancy has stopped falling, which usually precedes the rate inflection.

Self-storage values are down about 25% from peak, and the supply pipeline that chased pandemic rents has thinned to an 11-year low. That combination of cheaper assets and less new competition is the setup storage buyers wait years for.

The tell is how the majors are acting. Extra Space is guiding to roughly 200 million dollars of 2026 acquisitions, largely through joint ventures. Public Storage reported 186 million dollars acquired or under contract year to date, mostly off-market through its PSNext platform. Both are accumulating quietly rather than paying up in open processes.

Occupancy has flattened in the low-90s for the leaders and is grinding higher at smaller operators: SmartStop 92.5% in Q2, Extra Space 93% in Q1, National Storage Affiliates 84.5%, up 70 basis points. Storage rate growth typically turns after occupancy stabilizes, so the operational floor may already be forming.

Implications: For private owners, off-market accumulation by the majors signals where cap-rate support is building. For developers, an 11-year supply low means projects delivering into 2027 and 2028 face little new competition. For investors, storage is offering one of its better entry points since the post-2009 window, with the timing of the rate inflection the open variable.