➤ Key Highlights
National industrial vacancy dipped to ~7%, just below the late-2025 peak.
Q1 net absorption ~40M SF — best Q1 start since 2023.
2026 absorption forecast ~200M SF, up from ~155M SF in 2025.
New supply projected to fall to ~180M SF (from ~200M SF).
Strongest inland markets: Dallas/Ft. Worth, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte.
➤ SIGNAL
Demand is outrunning a deliberately shrinking pipeline — the textbook setup for a new rent cycle.
Tenant preference is bifurcating toward newer, power- and automation-ready buildings.
Industrial spent two years digesting a pandemic-era supply binge. The Q1 data says that digestion is largely done: absorption is rising, deliveries are falling, and the two lines are about to cross. When absorption outpaces supply against a 7% vacancy that has stopped climbing, rent power returns.
The flight-to-quality matters for underwriting. Demand is concentrating in modern, high-clearance, high-power boxes that can support automation and AI-adjacent logistics. Older, underpowered product will lag — the same trophy-vs-commodity split now visible in office.
The geography is inland. The strongest performers are interior distribution hubs, not coastal port markets — a reminder that the supply-chain map keeps redrawing itself.
Implications This is a fundamentals story, distinct from the M&A-driven industrial take-privates pricing the public-private gap. For owners, the read is patience: the cycle is turning, but the rent recovery is asset-specific.
➤ TAKEAWAY
Falling supply plus rising absorption is how a sector turns — industrial is mid-turn.
Source: Newmark Q1 2026 office report via CRE Daily / CommercialCafe — late May 2026 · Tag: Office / Leasing
