Source: Green Street Commercial Property Price Index (June print), via CRE Daily / Connect CRE · July 2026
Key Highlights
Commercial property prices flat in June; +4.1% over trailing 12 months.
Values remain ~14% below the 2022 cycle peak.
Strip retail leads: +9% YoY, now just 2% off its all-time high.
Industrial index at 225.5 (+4% YoY), still ~11% below its 2022 peak.
Office and net lease continue to lag the recovery.
The Signal
The recovery is real but rationed — gains are sector-specific, not broad.
Cap rates are "sticky," capping repricing even where demand is healthy.
The spread between the best sector (strip retail) and the worst (office) is now the whole story.
Prices held flat in June, but the twelve-month line is up — evidence the 2024–25 bottom is behind the market. What it is not is a rising tide. Strip retail sits within 2% of a record while office and net lease remain near cycle lows. That gap is structural, not seasonal.
The mechanism matters. Green Street's research desk attributes the modest pace to cap rates that refuse to compress. When cap rates stay put, price appreciation has to come from NOI growth alone — a far slower engine than the multiple expansion that drove 2021.
For underwriters, that removes the exit-cap tailwind from every model. Value in 2026 is manufactured at the asset — through leasing, cost control, and basis — not harvested from a repricing wave.
Implications
Buyers can no longer underwrite to a lower exit cap and call it conservative. Sellers of strip and well-leased industrial have a window; office and net-lease owners are still price-takers. The barbell in pricing is now wide enough to drive sector allocation on its own.
Key Takeaway
The bottom is in, but sticky cap rates mean this recovery is earned deal-by-deal, not ridden.
