Despite persistent speculation around future interest rate cuts, most commercial real estate transactions today are influenced more by Treasury yields and credit spreads than by Federal Reserve policy signaling.

Lenders continue to underwrite conservatively, placing emphasis on cash flow stability, duration risk, and exit assumptions. A pause in rate increases has not meaningfully softened underwriting standards, particularly for assets with operational or structural weaknesses.

As a result, deals that rely on future rate relief to justify pricing are struggling to clear. Conversely, transactions supported by strong fundamentals, conservative leverage, and durable income streams continue to receive financing attention.

Execution discipline, not policy optimism, is determining which deals move forward.

➤ TAKEAWAY

In this market, structure and underwriting discipline matter more than rate forecasts.