Capital Markets

The Recovery Has a Ceiling

Prices are up 4.1% and stuck 14% below peak. Sticky cap rates — not demand — decide who gets the recovery.

The Maturity Wall Is a Filter, Not a Flood

As $875B comes due, CRE's winners and losers have split to a record gap — and retail is leading.

The Fed Wrote CRE Into Its Own Paragraph.

April minutes name commercial real estate as separately restricted — and the cut path moved out.

Extend-and-Pretend Wasn't What It Looked Like.

A Fed economist published the data. Lenders backed it up with writedowns.

MOB Cap Rates Pierce 7% — Healthcare Real Estate Is the Next Compressed Asset Class

Q1 volume up 78% YoY to $2.9B, average pricing at $310/SF — but legislative risk to hospital-tenant credit is not in any cap rate today.

NYC's Pied-à-Terre Tax Is Now a Budget Line — Every Major City Is Taking Notes

Mamdani's $124.5B executive budget locks in America's first owner-status property tax — a template San Francisco, Boston, and Miami are already studying.

April's Inflation Double-Print Just Killed the 2026 Refi Script

Markets stripped every rate cut from the curve mid-week as PPI hit a three-year high — and every maturing CRE loan felt it.

Credit Markets Are Forcing CRE Price Discovery

Loan sales, rising credit stress, and selective transactions signal a capital-driven repricing cycle across U.S. commercial real estate.

Capital Stack Control Is Rewriting CRE Ownership

Credit investors gain control as distress accelerates and equity loses leverage

Underallocated Investors Begin Reconsidering Commercial Real Estate After Capital Markets Reset

Institutions remain below target allocations as CRE values stay well below 2022 peak.

Capital Loosens. Credit Tests Begin.

Rates are easing, sentiment is improving — but 2026 will be decided by refinancing discipline, not optimism.

Banks Pull Back, Private Lenders Surge

U.S. banks are trimming CRE exposure, leaving private credit to fill the void. Debt is available — but at a price.

🟡Looser Loan Disclosure Rules Mask Growing CRE Debt Crunch

Regulators ease reporting rules just as loan stress intensifies.

🟡Shutdown Adds Pressure to D.C. Housing Market, Weakening Demand

Federal gridlock injects uncertainty into one of the nation’s most government-dependent metros.

🟡State-Level Bans Cut Foreign Investment Share in U.S. Property

Regulators allege a secret deal eliminated competition in online multifamily ads

🟡Debt markets reopen as spreads tighten and issuance accelerates

Fed Rate Cut Sparks CMBS Revival

🟡Fed’s First 2025 Rate Cut Offers Partial Relief for CRE

The Federal Reserve delivered a long‐awaited 25‐basis‐point rate cut in mid‐September, lowering the Fed funds range to roughly 4.0–4.25

🟡Fed’s Policy Pivot and the Crossroads for U.S. CRE

The Fed cut 25 bps to bring the federal funds range to 4.00%–4.25% - Special Institutional Issue — September 17, 2025

Nomura's CRE Lending Comeback: CMBS Team Revives U.S. Strategy

Nomura revives U.S. commercial real estate lending with top Barclays CMBS team, targeting high-quality assets amid market distress and record $58.8B first-half issuance.